Saudis Alarm Their Friends More Than Foes In Mideast Power Plays

Prince Mohammed, who's called Iran's supreme leader "the new Hitler of the Middle East," has been emboldened by the alliance he's forged with U.S. President Donald Trump, based on shared antagonism toward Iran.

Yet the Saudi leader runs the risk of overplaying his hand, especially if he tries to use the Iranian protests as an opportunity to weaken the regime in Tehran, according James Dorsey, a Middle East specialist at Singapore's Nanyang Technological University.

"Iran would no doubt want to avoid a direct confrontation," but it has the ability to retaliate through proxies in Lebanon and Iraq, and to foment unrest among Shiites in Bahrain and inside Saudi Arabia itself, Dorsey said.

Also, the Saudi pushback is dependent on U.S. efforts to contain Iran, he said -- "an increasingly risky strategy" given that Trump has little international support. After recognizing Jerusalem as Israel's capital, and with a series of deadlines looming that may lead Washington further away from the global consensus on the Iran nuclear deal, the U.S. is becoming isolated.

Checkbook Diplomacy

Domestically, Prince Mohammed has had more success advancing his agenda. He argues that a drastic economic overhaul is essential to end decades of oil dependence.

As well as securing his own position as undisputed heir to his father King Salman's throne, the prince has launched an anti-corruption campaign, detaining dozens of elite businessmen. He has relaxed some of the kingdom's strict religious rules and outlined plans to sell state assets, bolster private industry and trim public spending.

Similar motives may underlie the new foreign policy. Prince Mohammed is scrapping a tradition of "checkbook" diplomacy that didn't get results, according to Ali Shihabi, executive director of the Arabia Foundation in Washington, who's close to the Saudi government.

"Saudi leaders funneled billions in aid to friends, many of whom used that money to bankroll their own agendas," Shihabi said in an e-mail. In the face of rapidly growing threats, he said, "the king and the crown prince concluded that Saudi Arabia could no longer rely on outdated policies."

'Doesn't Care'

But the near-absolute power that Prince Mohammed enjoys in the kingdom doesn't extend beyond its borders. He may not be sensitive to the different approach required in foreign policy, according to Sabra.

"MBS is either not acutely aware of, or doesn't care about the details of the domestic conditions in the region's other states," he said. "This is often at the root of the problems."

Arab strongmen of the past have found out the hard way that domestic success -- consolidation of power and wealth, marginalization of enemies -- didn't allow them to reshape the Middle East the way they hoped.

Egypt's Gamal Abdel Nasser was unable to win a war in Yemen, and then suffered a shattering defeat at Israel's hands in 1967. Saddam Hussein ruled Iraq for decades; his ventures abroad, including the 1980 attack on Iran and the 1990 invasion of Kuwait, ended in bloody failure.

COMMENTSPrince Mohammed, who's 32, may be attempting to differentiate himself from previous Saudi leaders and from his 81-year-old father, according to Paul Pillar, a former CIA officer who's now a professor at Georgetown University.

"MBS probably feels urgency to make a mark -- to show that he is in charge, and to show that he is not a young pushover," Pillar said. "This implies a greater need than other leaders might have to take risks. Greater risks means more opportunities for failure."