Saudi Arabia ’settlement’: Why the kingdom is offering detained elites freedom for their assets

 >  Saudi authorities are reportedly offering elites who were swept up in a corruption crackdown their freedom if they sign over their assets.

 >  Analysts say the arrangement could essentially serve as settlements, allowing the country to avoid destabilizing court battles.

 >  The move will likely harden opposition to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman among some royals, but boost his standing among average Saudis, they say.

Saudi authorities are reportedly offering cash-for-freedom deals to dozens of the nation's wealthy elites who were detained earlier this month on charges of corruption.

But Middle East watchers said the payments may not be as sinister as they first appear or create significant risks to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the powerful royal behind the purge.

To be sure, the arrangements threaten to provoke allegations of extortion and harden pockets of opposition to bin Salman at a sensitive time. King Salman bin Abdulaziz is expected to hand the throne to the crown prince soon, and Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, is seeking foreign investment to underwrite its economic transformation plan.

However, the asset seizures could essentially function like settlements, which would allow the nation to avoid messy court battles and move on from the purge, some analysts told CNBC.

Further, while the appropriations are likely to chafe some centers of power in the kingdom, they also stand to bolster bin Salman's standing among average Saudis, many of whom resent the excesses of the sprawling royal family, analysts told CNBC.

The purge increases the risk that Mohammed bin Salman faces challenges over the short term," said Ayham Kamel, head of risk consultancy Eurasia Group's Middle East and North Africa practice.

"However, this consolidation and purge — or anti-corruption campaign — will eventually give him more power and allow him to have more leverage in implementing Vision 2030, his transformation plan, and generally changing the structure of Saudi Arabia."

On Thursday, the Financial Times reported that Saudi officials were offering to release detainees who signed over assets. Authorities sought to appropriate as much as 70 percent of some Saudis' wealth in a bid to shore up the nation's finances, which have been pressured by a prolonged oil price downturn, according to the Times.

Reuters also reported on the deals, but said it could not confirm the 70-percent appropriations.

The crackdown has reportedly expanded. The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday that authorities have detained about two dozen military officials and several businessmen in recent days.

There is no doubt corruption is an entrenched problem in Saudi Arabia, but prosecuting elites would put Saudi Arabia on a long and difficult path that could destabilize the country, Kamel said. The alternative is to penalize the individuals through asset seizures, which also has the benefit of boosting the country's finances, he said.

Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, said the messaging from Riyadh on the appropriations will be critical.

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