Why We Should Worry About Saudi’s Game of Thrones

President Donald Trump appeared to have no trouble believing the scale of corruption, tweeting, "Some of those they are harshly treating have been 'milking' their country for years!"

Whether or not Trump included multibillionaire businessman Alwaleed bin Talal -- a protagonist for change in the conservative kingdom -- is unclear.

 

What is clear, though, is that bin Talal -- an outspoken prince and head of Kingdom Holding Co. with stakes in Citigroup, Twitter, Apple and News Corp. -- could have been a powerful adversary for bin Salman.

But before bin Salman ordered police to arrest potential foes, he had also been carefully co-opting other rivals.

Back in 2015, I met with a senior Saudi royal. He lived close enough to the corridors of power to know how influence is traded.

The war in Yemen was still fresh. Bin Salman had initiated the air campaign against the Houthi-backed Yemeni government. He owned the war: How it went and how much Saudi blood would be spilled will all rest on his shoulders.

Sitting with the senior royal, we talked about bin Salman, his growing power, his clear aspiration for more and his suitability to hold such high office.

He told me if that if bin Salman failed in Yemen, he'd be judged a failure across the board. Princes would talk quietly among themselves and -- if necessary -- request that he step down.

When I met the same royal again this year, he told me bin Salman would not be held to account for his failings. No gathering of princes would move against him.

When I asked why not, he sounded a little defeated: No one, he thinks, has the power or the money to take him on.

Months later, bin Salman's cunning was made clear to me when I learned he had given that royal a prestigious job by the Crown Prince.

In his meteoric rise, bin Salman hasn't just been clearing out an aging, sclerotic bureaucracy, but he has also been energizing the nation's youth. In a little more than two years, he has swept away a generation of elderly and experienced ministers.

He is building loyalty and -- if he gets it right -- longevity in leadership for himself. Seventy percent of the country is like him: around 30 or younger. What he has done to secure their support has been nothing short of revolutionary.

He has promised women the right to drive, allowed them to enter sports stadiums, banned religious police from arresting people and allowed men and women to meet in public without fear of persecution.

On Saudi National Day this year, music thumped out on the street. Men and women danced together, utterly unheard of even last year. And all of this around the corner from the square where Saudi beheadings take place.

Bin Salman is tapping into a desire for change and deftly wrapping it in the Saudis' already passionate nationalism.

And in arresting many conservative clerics, he seems to be downsizing religion in favor of nationalism.

But such a move is risky and could be bin Salman's Achilles' heel: A conservative backlash would be bloody. But he seems to counting on the outward-looking youth.

And while these kids are not tame, they are tied down by strict tradition, respect of family and deep loyalty to their nation.

So where is all this going? Bin Salman's growing anti-Iranian rhetoric might indicate what his reform agenda and nationalist cries have to do with one another.

This week, bin Salman called the rocketing of Riyadh a potential act of war by Iran.

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Source: qatarday

 

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