Iran & Saudi Arabia saber-rattling: Who would prevail in all-out war?

This month’s self-exile of Lebanese Sunni leader, Prime Minister Saad Hariri, announced from Riyadh, and Saudi Arabia’s indirect threat of a Qatar-style blockade, is stirring the old ghosts of the Lebanese Civil War. Hezbollah believes that Saudi Arabia is forcefully holding Hariri and that its actions amount to a declaration of war, while the Saudi government is reportedly seeking support from Israel in the confrontation with Iran.

With accusations flying, tensions running high, and anti-Iranian sentiment prevailing in the US government, the potential for serious clashes between Saudi Arabia and Iran is rising.

Crunching numbers

Predicting the outcome of a potential war based on statistics alone is pointless. For instance, Israel’s conflict with Hezbollah in 2006 ended in a draw, despite the IDF being far better funded and equipped. Still, the figures give an idea of what Tehran and Riyadh may bring into play in case of an escalation.

The website Global Firepower Index, which tracks the relative strength of national militaries, closely ranks the two nations. Saudi Arabia is estimated to be the world’s 24th-strongest nation, compared to Iran (21st).

Iran is three times more populous than Saudi Arabia and is able to field over 39 million soldiers compared to Saudi Arabia’s 14 million. Its total military personnel is estimated at 934,000, or 3.6 times larger than its rival.

In terms of military budget, the situation is the opposite. Tehran spends $6.3 billion on defense each year, while Riyadh’s budget is $56 billion. The gap may appear more impressive than it really is, until you take into account that Saudi Arabia gets most of its weapons from the United States at steep prices, while Iran prides itself on manufacturing whatever it can domestically. Its successes in areas like rocketry are apparent.

There is also the fact that different countries get different bang for their buck simply because goods and services have varying costs in each market. The website estimates Iran’s defense budget adjusted for purchasing power at $1.459 trillion, compared to Saudi Arabia’s at $1.731 trillion.

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