Iran & Saudi Arabia saber-rattling: Who would prevail in all-out war?

In terms of solid hardware, the Saudis beat Iran in the number of fighter jets and attack aircraft (177 and 245 vs. 137 and 137). Some of Iran’s planes are outdated American models left over from the times of the Shah, like the F-4 Phantom II, while others are Soviet and Chinese aircraft delivered from the late 1980s to early 1990s. The Royal Saudi Air Force is stacked with modern American, and some European, models. In case of war, Tehran hopes to shoot them down with surface-to-air missiles which it has been developing for years.

The naval strength of the two nations arguably favors Iran. The vast difference in the number of ships (398 vs. 55) is mostly due to Iran’s mosquito fleet of 230 patrol boats, but the Persians also boast something that the Arabs do not: submarines. Iran has 33 of them, ranging in displacement from small 10-ton Al-Sabehat 15 SDVs, all the way up to its three Russian Kilo-class attack subs delivered in the 1990s. If the US does not get involved (a big if), Iran may at the very least block all Saudi ships from sailing the Persian Gulf.

When it comes to large-scale ground battles, Iran has hardware numbers more or less on its side. It lags behind Saudi Arabia in terms of infantry fighting vehicles, but beats it in strength of tank units and vastly outnumbers in all kinds of artillery. But again, Iran’s ability to capitalize on this advantage will depend on whether it can defend the sky.

Death & destruction

Of course, if Iran and Saudi Arabia do come to blows, it would take a heavy toll on both countries and the rest of the world. Unlike the sporadic launches from Yemen, Iran’s ballistic missiles are more than capable of overwhelming Saudi defenses. But they may not be precise enough to avoid hitting non-military targets. Saudi Arabia’s record of killing civilians in Yemen leaves little room for hope that it would be more careful in a fight against Iran.

A conflict involving two major crude oil producers would also send oil prices skyrocketing, especially since a big share of the trade relies on the routethrough the Persian Gulf. One can use the hike on the news of the Saudi royal purge as a kind of preview of what may happen.

And if the two nations do clash, other players are unlikely to just stand by. The usual proxy forces will be spun to action. A real mess with little gain can be predicted, which is why, hopefully, it will not happen.