Why We Should Worry About Saudi’s Game of Thrones

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is mercilessly neutering opponents standing between him and the desert kingdom's throne.

His meteoric rise to power raises the specter of an equally rapid crash -- and with it chaos in the Middle East.

Critics fear he may be on the verge of a soft coup, sliding his 81-year-old father out and himself in. But closer study suggests he could be playing a more cautious game.

Each apparently Machiavellian move -- government reshuffles, economic and social promises and now arrests -- has been taken one deliberate step at a time.

But whether he takes his father's place now or in a few years makes little difference to arguably the most important issue in the region: the conflict between the Saudis and their regional nemesis, Iran.

His father isn't just Saudi Arabia's monarch: King Salman is custodian of Islam's two holiest sites, and a palace coup in Riyadh could have ramifications beyond the kingdom's borders.

And in this most Sunni of Sunni nations, Prince bin Salman wants the Saudis to lead a grand coalition against Shia Iran.

For most his life, the crown prince will have been aware that he and some of his cousins could end up in a battle for power.

Since the death of Ibn Saud -- the first monarch of Saudi Arabia -- his sons passed the job along until their hearts gave out. The crown prince's father is almost the last in that line.

At an early age, bin Salman knew this might be his destiny: If his father didn't die of old age before becoming King, then it could be engineered so that Prince bin Salman would become the first of Ibn Saud's grandchildren to take the throne.

Without serious portfolios to manage other than his father's private office while governor of Riyadh, bin Salman has had plenty of time to plot.

Now, as crown prince, technically nothing stands between him and the top job -- other than his father's health. But bin Salman still appears to be taking no chances.

This week he arrested a slew of princes and ministers after accusing them of corruption.

President Trump appears to have no concerns: "I have great confidence in King Salman and the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, they know exactly what they are doing."

But not everyone shares his confidence. Many in the region fear that Prince bin Salman is overly ambitious, zealous in the extreme -- and maybe even a little bit paranoid. They worry he might cause the collapse of one of the world's most unchanging religious and cultural anchors, not to mention throw the global economy off-kilter.

Saudis launch anti-corruption sweep 01:08

But bin Salman's moves to secure his succession may not have been as wild as they appear.

His opponents also have been playing the Saudi "Game of Thrones" long before HBO's blockbuster series.

So while his actions may look sudden, they will have been carefully considered. What we don't know is how precise those calculations have been.

Last year he launched his ambitious Vision 2030 to diversify the economy away from hydrocarbons and employ the Saudi young.

The change was necessary: decades of ossifying Kings had left stuck Saudi in the past. Rock-bottom oil prices were stripping unsustainable billions from the nation's sovereign wealth fund. But an appeal to the young could shore up a huge base of popular support away from the scheming in the palaces.

Bin Salman ordered belt tightening. He cut subsidies on fuel and food basics and dreamed up an initial public offering for the world's largest company -- the oil behemoth Aramco -- to fund his gamble on Saudi rebirth.

Yet each phase of Vision 2030 has seen revision. Subsides were reintroduced and rates of employment revisited. Even the IPO was questioned.

History suggests that bin Salman appears to risk it all before pulling back when disaster looms.

Yet when it comes to securing the throne, he probably won't be dialed back so easily.

His fight against corruption is an easy sell to many of the Saudi poor. They have long grumbled in subservient apathy while royals enjoyed wealth they could never imagine.

In a country where nepotism is rife, and government jobs and their perks come for life, bin Salman could have arrested many more.

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