Iran & Saudi Arabia saber-rattling: Who would prevail in all-out war?

Tensions between Saudi Arabia and regional nemesis Iran are even higher than usual, with Riyadh targeting Tehran ally Hezbollah. If an actual military conflict between the two breaks out, who would have the best chance at prevailing?

The regional confrontation between the two nations separated geographically by the narrow Persian Gulf is deeply rooted in sectarian, political, and economic competition. Saudi Arabia and Iran follow the two rival sects of Islam with a long history of violence. They compete in the currently troubled energy market, with Tehran holding a grudge over the share it has lost due to sanctions imposed by Riyadh’s American patrons. They fight proxy battles, often violently, in places like Bahrain, Yemen, and Lebanon.

The recent flare-up comes as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who is considered the de-facto ruler of the country by many observers, is solidifying power through so-called anti-corruption operations against his rivals and appealing for foreign support with promises to modernize Saudi Arabia’s brand of Islam and massive investment in futuristic projects.

The Saudi domestic struggle may stem from a series of foreign policy failures. Riyadh’s military intervention in Yemen, launched with much fanfare in 2015 to counter the Iran-aligned Houthi rebels, has become a quagmire. The crown prince was one of the key figures behind the decision, which has led to a major humanitarian disaster, but no military victory.

This year’s rift with Qatar and an economic blockade of the small Arab kingdom failed to produce swift concessions from Doha. If anything, it pushed Qatar closer to Iran, which offered logistical help, and Turkey, a country that wants to assert its own role in the region.

In Syria, Islamist militant groups favored by Saudi Arabia failed to topple the government in Damascus. Propped up by Russian air support and strengthened on the ground by Shiite militias and Iranian military instructors, the Syrian Army has essentially prevailed in the conflict.

Now Riyadh appears to be trying to stir problems for Iran in Lebanon, a nation divided along sectarian lines following a 15-year civil war that claimed 120,000 lives. One of the main developments of the war was the emergence of Hezbollah, a Shiite militant movement that is currently one of the most powerful forces in Lebanon, and part of a government formed under a power sharing agreement in 2016.

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